I met recently with Raven Zachary, Open Source Research Director for The 451 Group. He writes a blog, the 451's CAOS Report and lots of other stuff.
Here are some of the prescient things he had to say:
In 2006: There were four major events in the Open Source world: (1) the JBoss acquisition; (2) Oracle Unbreakable Linux; (3) and Microsoft-Novell collaboration agreement, and (4) Open Source Java. Funding – $546M, 58 deals, peak funding year. M&A – 22 deals.
In 2007: There were also four major events in the Open Source world: (1) GPLv3 and GPL lawsuits; (2) SCO bankruptcy; (3) More Microsoft Linux deals, and (4) New foundations. Funding (to date) – $324M, 50 deals. M&A – 30 deals, peak M&A year.
In 2008, we can expect:
- Greater shift in activity to existing IT vendors.
- Less funding, more M&A.
- A new wave of business failures.
- Continued talent shortages from core contributors.
- SMB market adoption is a limited opportunity.
Very similar to my 2008 trends posting.
By 2011, we can expect:
- Educated buyers.
- Consolidation(s) of open source startups.
- Diversification of Linux suppliers.
- Federated support models.
- Services model wins out.
- Open collaboration and standards more important than code.