Thursday, January 10, 2008

Raven Zackary's View of the OSS World (2006-2011)

I met recently with Raven Zachary, Open Source Research Director for The 451 Group. He writes a blog, the 451's CAOS Report and lots of other stuff.

Here are some of the prescient things he had to say:

In 2006: There were four major events in the Open Source world: (1) the JBoss acquisition; (2) Oracle Unbreakable Linux; (3) and Microsoft-Novell collaboration agreement, and (4) Open Source Java. Funding – $546M, 58 deals, peak funding year. M&A – 22 deals.

In 2007: There were also four major events in the Open Source world: (1) GPLv3 and GPL lawsuits; (2) SCO bankruptcy; (3) More Microsoft Linux deals, and (4) New foundations. Funding (to date) – $324M, 50 deals. M&A – 30 deals, peak M&A year.

In 2008, we can expect:

  1. Greater shift in activity to existing IT vendors.
  2. Less funding, more M&A.
  3. A new wave of business failures.
  4. Continued talent shortages from core contributors.
  5. SMB market adoption is a limited opportunity.

Very similar to my 2008 trends posting.

By 2011, we can expect:

  1. Educated buyers.
  2. Consolidation(s) of open source startups.
  3. Diversification of Linux suppliers.
  4. Federated support models.
  5. Services model wins out.
  6. Open collaboration and standards more important than code.

What was your reaction to Raven's view of 2011?

No comments: